Old Faces in New Places - Matt Holliday

2008 statistics:

.321/.409/.538
25 hr
88 rbi
28 sb
107 r

Background:

Matt was coming off a World Series appearance in 2007, and there were hopes of a repeat performance in 2008. The Rockies did not play particularly well during the season, finishing at 74-88. This led the Rockies to a tough spot, with Matt due to be a free agent after the 2009 season. Throw in that Matt is a client of Scott Boras, and the Rockies were listening to offers on Matt. In the end, they traded him to Oakland for Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street, and Greg Smith.

Analysis:

The biggest thing that stands out to me about Matt Holliday is this: McAfee Coliseum is not Coors Field. In general, Coors Field has a tendency to improve hitters' numbers (park factor of 105 in 2008), while McAfee tends to help pitchers more (park factor of 97). The effect of this change can potentially be seen in his home/away splits:

2008:
Home: .332/.413/.584, 15 hr, 59 rbi, 62 runs, 10 sb
Away: .308/.405/.486, 10 hr, 29 rbi, 45 runs, 18 sb

Splits adjusted to be per 162 games for career numbers
Career:
Home: .357/.423/.645, 37 hr, 138 rbi, 128 runs, 12 sb
Away: .280/.348/.455, 21 hr, 84 rbi, 92 runs, 18 sb

The key here is to remember 2 things:

1. If you get his away numbers for a full season, he is still a very productive fantasy outfielder.
2. If you draft him based on him still playing 81 games a year in Coors Field, you will most likely not get the value you are drafting him for.

Another thing I would think about with Oakland is the view that is generally accepted about their running game. In the past, Oakland has been known for not wanting to steal bags, mostly as a result of an excerpt from the book, Moneyball. However, looking at the statistics from the 2008 season, the team was in the middle of the pack in terms of both steals and steal attempts in the American League. While he may see a drop off in steals due to a change in location, he still has the requisite skills to do so, and should still see double-digit steals in the future.

Conclusions and Predictions:

Matt is still an elite outfielder, and should still have an excellent season despite changing teams from Colorado to Oakland. I would temper my expectations that he would be a top-5 player, as was expected at the start of the 2008 season. However, if drafted in the late 2nd/early 3rd round, or later, he should provide at least that much value or better.

WG Predicted Stat Ranges:

.310/.390/.480
27 hr, 105 rbi
22 steals, 100 runs