Old Faces in New Places - Kerry Wood

2008 statistics:
5-4, 3.26 era, 1.09 whip
34/40 saves
82 K, 18 BB

Background:

Kerry spent 2008 as the closer for the Cubs, his first season doing so. He pitched excellently, even earning an All-Star nod for his first half. After the Cubs' first round playoff exit, he became a free agent. Shortly after the season, the Cubs acquired Kevin Gregg, and decided that they would not offer Kerry even a one-year deal to return. The Cubs have since decided to plug Carlos Marmol in as their closer for the foreseeable future. Since then, Kerry signed a 2 year/$20.5 million contract with the Cleveland Indians to be their closer.

Analysis:

Two things immediately stand out to me about Kerry Wood:
1) His strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) is excellent.

• A good strikeout-to-walk ratio helps with 2 stats immediately: Strikeouts, and WHIP.
• Generally, pitchers that strike out a lot of hitters will tend to repeat these skills, providing that they have good control to go with it. Hence the reason walks become important.
• Relievers should almost always have great K/BB ratios, as their value from a fantasy standpoint relies on being able to provide counting stats in a minimal amount of innings.
  

2) He is set to be the closer in Cleveland.

• Saves, while a part of the game, are an extremely random part of the game. As a result, any pitcher who provides good peripheral stats and is set to be a closer without an open competition is worth owning.
• Cleveland, while dismal last season, should improve enough to give him a good amount of save chances. Their bullpen behind him should be solid, and provide him with plenty of leads.
• Having committed $20.5 million to Kerry, the Indians are less likely to give up on him as the closer when he hits his first rough spot of the season.
  

Conclusions and Predictions:

Kerry Wood should have a good season with the Indians. While it will be his first season away from the Cubs, he appears to have come to enjoy the closer role, and should see only a slight adjustment going to the American League. While there is always a chance he will injure himself, he was healthy for the majority of last season, and would not appear to be more than an average risk for injury during 2009.

WG (Wild Guess) predicted stat ranges:
30-35 saves
65-70 innings pitched
3.75-4.00 era
80 strikeouts/15 walks