Old Faces in New Places - Trevor Hoffman

2008 statistics:
3-6, 30/34 saves
3.77 era, 1.04 whip
46 k / 9 bb

Background:

Trevor and the Padres came into 2008 with high hopes for their season, after just missing the playoffs in 2007. He pitched effectively in 2008, but had career lows in appearances, innings pitched, and a career high ERA. He became a free agent after the season, and was offered a contract by the Padres. However, he felt he was treated poorly by the Padres, with the Padres deciding to go in a different direction due to payroll concerns. As a result, he signed a 1 year, $6 million contract with the Brewers.

Analysis:

There are two things that I see about this change that affect Trevor's value as a fantasy player:

1. He is moving from Petco Park to Miller Park
2. He is going from a last place team to a playoff team (in 2008)

Clearly, the first is more important than the latter. Going from a pitcher's park like Petco (Park Factor of 88) to a neutral park like Miller (Park Factor of 100) is usually going to have a slightly adverse effect on his statistics. His fly-ball to ground-ball splits (48%/38%/14%) tells me that he may have a problem with this change.

Changing teams could be a benefit to Trevor's value. While he received 34 save opportunities last year with San Diego, he should see an increase in opportunities in Milwaukee.


Conclusions and Predictions:

Trevor is definitely not the elite closer he once was. However, he is going into the season as the unchallenged closer on a team that went to the playoffs last season, and should at least be competitive this season. I like the idea of getting him in a later round, as potentially a 2nd or 3rd closer behind an elite one.

WG Predicted Stat Ranges:
30-35 saves
55 innings pitched
3.75 - 4.00 era
40 k / 10 bb