Old Faces in New Places - Raul Ibanez

2008 statistics:

.293/.358/.479
23 hr
110 rbi
2 sb
85 r

Background:

Raul spent 2008 playing left field for a particularly bad Mariners team. At age 36, he became a free agent for the 3rd time in his career, and joined a free agent class that was full of corner outfielders/first basemen/designated hitter types. Raul appears to have hit the jackpot in that group. In December, he signed a 3 year, $31.5 million contract to play left field for the Phillies

Analysis:

I would tend to believe that Raul should put up similar numbers in 2009 to his 2008 season for the following reasons:

1. He is changing home parks from Seattle's Safeco Field to Philadelphia's Citizen Bank Park.
2. The lineup surrounding him in Philadelphia is much better than the Mariners' lineup was last season.
3. His team will face overall worse pitching (with regard to divisional opponents) than the Mariners did in 2008.

Even if he regresses slightly due to his age, this should be offset by the difference in the teams.


Conclusions and Predictions:

MockDraftCentral.com has Ibanez being drafted as the 34th outfielder, and 117th overall. Getting Ibanez in any round after probabl the 9th is probably a solid value, and just improves the longer he lasts. For a 3rd outfielder on your team, he's an extremely good value.

WG Predicted Stat Ranges:

.300/.370/.490
25 hr
100 rbi
0 steals
100 runs

Old Faces in New Places - Trevor Hoffman

2008 statistics:
3-6, 30/34 saves
3.77 era, 1.04 whip
46 k / 9 bb

Background:

Trevor and the Padres came into 2008 with high hopes for their season, after just missing the playoffs in 2007. He pitched effectively in 2008, but had career lows in appearances, innings pitched, and a career high ERA. He became a free agent after the season, and was offered a contract by the Padres. However, he felt he was treated poorly by the Padres, with the Padres deciding to go in a different direction due to payroll concerns. As a result, he signed a 1 year, $6 million contract with the Brewers.

Analysis:

There are two things that I see about this change that affect Trevor's value as a fantasy player:

1. He is moving from Petco Park to Miller Park
2. He is going from a last place team to a playoff team (in 2008)

Clearly, the first is more important than the latter. Going from a pitcher's park like Petco (Park Factor of 88) to a neutral park like Miller (Park Factor of 100) is usually going to have a slightly adverse effect on his statistics. His fly-ball to ground-ball splits (48%/38%/14%) tells me that he may have a problem with this change.

Changing teams could be a benefit to Trevor's value. While he received 34 save opportunities last year with San Diego, he should see an increase in opportunities in Milwaukee.


Conclusions and Predictions:

Trevor is definitely not the elite closer he once was. However, he is going into the season as the unchallenged closer on a team that went to the playoffs last season, and should at least be competitive this season. I like the idea of getting him in a later round, as potentially a 2nd or 3rd closer behind an elite one.

WG Predicted Stat Ranges:
30-35 saves
55 innings pitched
3.75 - 4.00 era
40 k / 10 bb

Old Faces in New Places - Matt Holliday

2008 statistics:

.321/.409/.538
25 hr
88 rbi
28 sb
107 r

Background:

Matt was coming off a World Series appearance in 2007, and there were hopes of a repeat performance in 2008. The Rockies did not play particularly well during the season, finishing at 74-88. This led the Rockies to a tough spot, with Matt due to be a free agent after the 2009 season. Throw in that Matt is a client of Scott Boras, and the Rockies were listening to offers on Matt. In the end, they traded him to Oakland for Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street, and Greg Smith.

Analysis:

The biggest thing that stands out to me about Matt Holliday is this: McAfee Coliseum is not Coors Field. In general, Coors Field has a tendency to improve hitters' numbers (park factor of 105 in 2008), while McAfee tends to help pitchers more (park factor of 97). The effect of this change can potentially be seen in his home/away splits:

2008:
Home: .332/.413/.584, 15 hr, 59 rbi, 62 runs, 10 sb
Away: .308/.405/.486, 10 hr, 29 rbi, 45 runs, 18 sb

Splits adjusted to be per 162 games for career numbers
Career:
Home: .357/.423/.645, 37 hr, 138 rbi, 128 runs, 12 sb
Away: .280/.348/.455, 21 hr, 84 rbi, 92 runs, 18 sb

The key here is to remember 2 things:

1. If you get his away numbers for a full season, he is still a very productive fantasy outfielder.
2. If you draft him based on him still playing 81 games a year in Coors Field, you will most likely not get the value you are drafting him for.

Another thing I would think about with Oakland is the view that is generally accepted about their running game. In the past, Oakland has been known for not wanting to steal bags, mostly as a result of an excerpt from the book, Moneyball. However, looking at the statistics from the 2008 season, the team was in the middle of the pack in terms of both steals and steal attempts in the American League. While he may see a drop off in steals due to a change in location, he still has the requisite skills to do so, and should still see double-digit steals in the future.

Conclusions and Predictions:

Matt is still an elite outfielder, and should still have an excellent season despite changing teams from Colorado to Oakland. I would temper my expectations that he would be a top-5 player, as was expected at the start of the 2008 season. However, if drafted in the late 2nd/early 3rd round, or later, he should provide at least that much value or better.

WG Predicted Stat Ranges:

.310/.390/.480
27 hr, 105 rbi
22 steals, 100 runs

Old Faces in New Places - J.J. Putz

2008 statistics:
6-5, 3.88 era, 1.60 whip
15/23 saves
56 k, 28 bb

Background:

J.J. started 2008 with the same high hopes as his team, the Mariners. Having come off a season for the record books in 2007, he hoped to at least perform at the same level. However, the injury bug hit Putz early, getting his season off to a bad start. He returned in late April, but struggled, eventually landing on the DL again in June, and returned for good in late July. His 2008 season, while not terrible, was not nearly what was expected back in April. During the off-season, J.J. was traded to the New York Mets as part of a three-team deal with the Indians. However, this was not long after Francisco Rodriguez had been signed by the Mets to close.

Analysis:

The stats show that J.J. appeared to have regressed over the span of last season, most likely related to the injuries he suffered during the season. A major portion of his value was tied with his holding down a closer job in the major leagues, and with his new team he is very unlikely to receive many save chances. Barring an injury to K-Rod, I would expect him to potentially get some saves if there are opportunities on multiple days in a row.

J.J. does still provide some value, especially if he can return to some facsimile of the form he had in 2007, where he was striking out over 6 batters to every walk he allowed. If your league setup allows for holds, strikeout-walk ratio, or a lot of pitcher lineup spots, he would be a huge asset. I would think he would be worth a flier, and definitely worth monitoring K-Rod for. He would easily be the first in line for save chances should K-Rod get injured during the season.

A minor concern, as with all the pitchers involved, is his accepting a spot on Team USA for the World Baseball Classic. My only concern involved would be that he may become more fatigued than normal by the end of the season. Something to pay attention to.

Conclusions and Predictions:

J.J. will be able to adjust to the New York spotlight somewhat in the background, as he is not expected to come in and replace Billy Wagner, and was not paid to come to New York. If he stays healthy this season, he should provide an excellent pitcher to the Mets, and could provide some good value to his fantasy owners as well. Keep an eye on him in the later rounds of your draft, although it is likely in at least a few leagues that someone will draft him like he is a closer. Clearly he will not be for the foreseeable future, but as a late round flier he could provide value, like Jonathan Broxton or Carlos Marmol in years' past.

WG Predicted Stat Ranges:
5 -7 saves
25-35 holds
75 innings pitched
2.75 - 3.00 era
90 strikeouts, 20 walks

Old Faces in New Places - Kerry Wood

2008 statistics:
5-4, 3.26 era, 1.09 whip
34/40 saves
82 K, 18 BB

Background:

Kerry spent 2008 as the closer for the Cubs, his first season doing so. He pitched excellently, even earning an All-Star nod for his first half. After the Cubs' first round playoff exit, he became a free agent. Shortly after the season, the Cubs acquired Kevin Gregg, and decided that they would not offer Kerry even a one-year deal to return. The Cubs have since decided to plug Carlos Marmol in as their closer for the foreseeable future. Since then, Kerry signed a 2 year/$20.5 million contract with the Cleveland Indians to be their closer.

Analysis:

Two things immediately stand out to me about Kerry Wood:
1) His strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) is excellent.

• A good strikeout-to-walk ratio helps with 2 stats immediately: Strikeouts, and WHIP.
• Generally, pitchers that strike out a lot of hitters will tend to repeat these skills, providing that they have good control to go with it. Hence the reason walks become important.
• Relievers should almost always have great K/BB ratios, as their value from a fantasy standpoint relies on being able to provide counting stats in a minimal amount of innings.
  

2) He is set to be the closer in Cleveland.

• Saves, while a part of the game, are an extremely random part of the game. As a result, any pitcher who provides good peripheral stats and is set to be a closer without an open competition is worth owning.
• Cleveland, while dismal last season, should improve enough to give him a good amount of save chances. Their bullpen behind him should be solid, and provide him with plenty of leads.
• Having committed $20.5 million to Kerry, the Indians are less likely to give up on him as the closer when he hits his first rough spot of the season.
  

Conclusions and Predictions:

Kerry Wood should have a good season with the Indians. While it will be his first season away from the Cubs, he appears to have come to enjoy the closer role, and should see only a slight adjustment going to the American League. While there is always a chance he will injure himself, he was healthy for the majority of last season, and would not appear to be more than an average risk for injury during 2009.

WG (Wild Guess) predicted stat ranges:
30-35 saves
65-70 innings pitched
3.75-4.00 era
80 strikeouts/15 walks

Upcoming Posts

I am heading up to the snow in the upcoming weekend, but I am still hoping to post on the following topics either this week or next.

I plan on starting a new series of posts about players who have changed teams this offseason, and their impact for fantasy.
- C.C. Sabathia
- Matt Holliday
- Kerry Wood
- J.J. Putz
- Trevor Hoffman
- Raul Ibanez

League #2 Roster

Active Roster

• C: Geovany Soto (CHC), Taylor Teagarden (TEX)
  
• 1B: Derrek Lee (CHC)
  
• 2B: Placido Polanco (DET), Mark DeRosa (CLE)
  
• 3B: Aramis Ramirez (CHC), Carlos Guillen (DET)
  
• SS: Ryan Theriot (CHC)
  
• OF: Kosuke Fukudome (CHC), Carlos Gonzalez (COL), Nate McLouth (PIT), David DeJesus (KC), Dexter Fowler (COL)
• SP: Carlos Zambrano (CHC), Paul Maholm (PIT), Edwin Jackson (DET), Armando Galarraga (DET), Ian Snell (PIT), Rich Hill (CHC)
• RP: Mariano Rivera (NYY), Trevor Hoffman (MIL), Carlos Marmol (CHC), Jeff Samardzija (CHC), Kerry Wood (CLE)

Minor League Roster:

• 2008: Josh Vitters, 3B, CHC
• 2008: Neil Walker, 3B, PIT
• 2009: Buster Posey, C, SF
• 2009: Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX
• 2009: Tim Alderson, P, SF
• 2009: Carlos Triunfel, SS, SEA
• 2009: Aaron Hicks, OF, MIN
• 2009: Grant Green, SS, USC
• 2009: Carlos Santana, C, CLE